Japan's electric vehicle transition by 2035 may be insufficient to combat the climate crisis, but there are solutions

到2035年，日本电动车转型可能不足以应对气候危机，但有解决方案

Researchers at Kyushu University have found that Japan's current policy of stopping the sale of gas vehicles by 2035 and transitioning only to hybrids and electric vehicles may be insufficient to reduce the country's CO2 emissions and prevent it from reaching its decarbonization target goals. In fact, emissions may temporarily increase.

 九州大学的研究人员发现，日本目前的政策是到2035年停止销售汽油车，只转向混合动力车和电动车可能不足以减少该国的二氧化碳排放，并阻止其达到脱碳目标。实际上，排放量可能会暂时增加。

The team's analysis showed that along with the policy, the Japanese government must simultaneously work to increase production of clean energy, decarbonize the manufacturing process, and extend vehicle lifetime.

 该团队的分析显示，除了政策之外，日本政府还必须同时努力增加清洁能源的生产，脱碳制造过程，并延长汽车的使用寿命。

In the effort to combat the climate crisis most countries in the world have implemented policies that reduce their production of greenhouse gases such as CO2, and Japan is no different.

 在应对气候危机的努力中，世界上大多数国家都实施了减少温室气体（如二氧化碳）排放的政策，日本也不例外。

One such policy is a ban on the new sale of fossil fuel powered vehicles.

 一项此类政策是禁止销售使用化石燃料的新车辆。

The country is working to ban the sale of new gas vehicles by 2035, and move to only sell EVs, HVs, and FCVs, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles respectively.

 该国正努力在2035年前禁止销售新的汽油车，并转而只销售EVs、HVs和FCVs，即电动车、混合动力车和燃料电池车。

While this is a move in the right direction, Professor Shigemi Kagawa from Kyushu University's Faculty of Economics reports in his new paper, published in the Journal of Cleaner Production, that banning new gas vehicles may not be enough to reach Japan's decarbonization goals.

 尽管这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，但九州大学经济学院的香川茂教授在他发表在《清洁生产杂志》上的新论文中报告称，禁止新的汽油车销售可能不足以实现日本的脱碳目标。

"Our team focused on how much CO2 is produced during a car's entire lifetime, from the first resource extracted from the earth to when it gets destroyed. Looking at the lifecycle CO2, or LC-CO2, of a car allow us to take a larger view on a car's emissions," explains Kagawa.

 “我们团队着重研究了整个汽车生命周期中产生的CO2量，从第一次地球上提取资源到车辆报废的整个过程。观察汽车的生命周期CO2排放量，让我们能够更全面地了解汽车的排放情况，” 香川解释道。

The team found a number of policy points that need to be addressed, including decarbonizing the supply chain, improving the country's energy mix, and extending vehicle lifetime.

 该团队发现了需要解决的多个政策问题，包括脱碳供应链、改善国家能源结构以及延长汽车使用寿命等。

"Just building a car is energy intensive. All the building materials need to be mined, processed, shipped, and constructed. Every part of that process produces CO2," Kagawa continues.

 香川继续说道：“汽车的制造耗能很大。所有建筑材料都需要开采、加工、运输和施工。这个过程的每一个环节都会产生CO2。”

"Construction of an EV can produce 1.5 to 2 times more emissions compared to a gas car. If car manufacturers increase their production of EVs without decarbonizing the supply chain, then emissions reduction will stagnate."

 “与汽油车相比，电动汽车的制造过程可能产生1.5到2倍的排放。如果汽车制造商增加电动汽车的生产而不脱碳供应链，那么减排就会停滞不前。”

Moving Japan's energy mix to more renewable sources is also a vital step in this process.

 将日本的能源结构转向更多的可再生能源也是这一进程中的重要一步。

A country's energy mix is the ratio of fuel sources it uses to make electricity.

 一个国家的能源结构是指它用于发电的燃料来源的比例。

In 2020, Japan's energy mix was 76% fossil fuels and 20% renewables.

2020年，日本的能源结构是76%的化石燃料和20%的可再生能源。

So, even if everybody switched to EVs the energy required to charge such vehicles still results in fossil fuel emissions.

 因此，即使每个人都转向电动汽车，充电所需的能源仍然会导致化石燃料排放。

"Japan's planned 2030 energy mix is 50% fossil fuels and 28% renewable energy. That will not adequately reduce LC-CO2. The EV policy starting in 2035 aims to contribute to a 10% reduction or 2.9 Mt (million tons) of CO2 in vehicle emissions in 2050. This reduction level falls far short of achieving a carbon-neutral vehicle society," explains Kagawa.

香川解释道：“日本计划的2030年能源结构是50%的化石燃料和28%的可再生能源。这不足以充分减少生命周期CO2。从2035年开始实施的电动汽车政策旨在到2050年为车辆排放减少10%或2.9百万吨CO2。这一减排水平远远不足以实现碳中和的车辆社会目标。”

"Japan needs to aim toward the International Energy Agency (IEA) mix of 10% fossil fuels and 88% renewables by 2050. Our models show a reduction of an additional 10%, a potential of 3.4 Mt of CO2, in vehicle emissions in 2050 if Japan follows the IEA policy mix."

 “日本需要朝着国际能源署（IEA）在2050年的能源结构目标前进，即10%的化石燃料和88%的可再生能源。我们的模型显示，如果日本遵循IEA的政策结构，到2050年汽车排放将额外减少10%，即潜在的3.4百万吨CO2。”

Finally, extending a car's lifetime, for both EVs or gas vehicles, can go a long way to reduce LC-CO2. The average lifespan of a car in Japan is 13 years.

 最后，延长汽车的使用寿命，无论是电动汽车还是汽油车，都可以大幅减少生命周期CO2排放。日本汽车的平均使用寿命为13年。

The research team's models found that the if a car registered between 1993 and 2050 has its average lifetime extended by even one year it could reduce up to 90 Mt of overall CO2 emissions for the country.

 研究团队的模型发现，如果在1993年至2050年间注册的汽车的平均寿命延长一年，可以为该国减少多达90百万吨的总CO2排放量。

Conversely, if a vehicle's lifespan is reduced by one year, within the same time frame, CO2 emissions increase by roughly the same amount.

 相反，如果在同一时间范围内缩短车辆的寿命一年，CO2排放量将增加大约相同的数量。