ChatGPT could replace telemarketers, teachers and traders

ChatGPT或将取代电话推销员、教师和交易员

Here’s why that is no bad thing

这为何不是一件坏事

After decades of blue-collar jobs being snatched up by machines, advanced chatbots are now breathing down white collars. “Generative” artificial-intelligence (ai) tools, such as ChatGPT, have made significant progress in crafting human-sounding language and grasping context. So much so that they have leapfrogged humans in some tasks. This could make as many as 300m jobs redundant globally, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank. Several new papers consider which sectors will face the biggest shake-up.

 几十年来，机器抢走了大量蓝领工作，现在，先进的聊天机器人已开始威胁到白领工作。在塑造听起来像人类的语言和理解上，诸如ChatGPT之类的“生成式”人工智能（AI）工具取得了显著进展。以至于在某些任务中，它们已超越了人类。据高盛银行称，这可能导致全球多达3亿个工作岗位被淘汰。一些新的研究论文正考虑哪些行业将面临最大震动。

A recent study by OpenAI, the startup that created ChatGPT, looked at the potential for automation across 1,016 occupations. Humans and AI separately rated how well software powered by large language models (LLMs), which are trained on vast chunks of the internet and then fine-tuned to specific functions, could undertake 19,000 tasks involved in the jobs. If the software, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, was deemed able to reduce the time it takes humans to complete the task by at least half, without a drop in quality, the task was considered ripe for AI replacement (a score of one meant that the whole occupation could be done in half the time). For other tasks the annotators imagined additional software that could be added to the model, such as computer tools that can automatically pull fresh data from the internet. They found that 80% of Americans could have at least 10% of their work tasks done by advanced AI tools. The figure rises to 50% of tasks for an estimated 19% of workers.

 最近OpenAI进行了一项研究，这家初创公司创建了ChatGPT，该研究调查了1016种职业的自动化潜力。人类和人工智能分别对基于大型语言模型（LLM）驱动的软件进行评分，这些模型在大量互联网数据上进行训练，然后进行特定功能的微调，以完成这些职业中的19,000项任务。如果像OpenAI的GPT-4这样的软件被认为能够将人类完成任务所需时间缩短至少一半，而且质量不会下降，那么该任务被认为适合用人工智能替代（评分为1表示整个职业可以在一半的时间内完成）。对于其他任务，标注者设想了可以添加到模型中的额外软件，例如可以自动从互联网获取最新数据的计算机工具。他们发现，80%的美国人可以至少将10%的工作任务由先进的AI工具完成。估计有19%的工人的任务比例可以提高到50%。

Most exposed are industries which rely on programming and writing skills. That echoes another study, published on March 1st by academics in America, which found that the industries most at risk of a shake-up were legal services and some areas of the financial and insurance industries. They point to telemarketers as the occupation most likely to be made redundant. Teachers, especially those of languages, literature and history, are next on the list. What is striking in both studies is that, unlike past breakthroughs in machine learning, it is skilled and high-paying jobs that are most exposed.

 最受影响的是依赖于编程和写作技能的行业。这呼应了另一项由美国学者于3月1日发表的研究，该研究发现，最有可能受到重创的行业是法律服务和一些金融和保险行业的部分领域。他们指出，电话推销员是最有可能被淘汰的职业。教师，特别是语言、文学和历史教师，排在其后。这两项研究的显著之处在于，与过去机器学习的突破不同，最受影响的是技能和高薪工作。

This automation should not be feared. It could unshackle workers from mundane tasks and unleash greater labour productivity, which would be a boon for drum-tight labour markets in advanced economies. A study by Goldman Sachs, published on April 5th, suggests that generative AI could grow global gdp by 7% in the next decade.

 我们不该畏惧这种自动化。它可以将工人们从单调乏味的任务中解放出来，释放出更大的劳动生产率，这将对发达经济体中紧张的劳动力市场带来好处。高盛于4月5日发布的一项研究表明，生成式人工智能可以在未来十年将全球GDP增长7%。

But studies like this may overstate the potential for automation. The annotators responsible for mapping overlaps between LLMs and human capabilities may omit some tacit skills in professions they know less about. Human qualities essential for some jobs, such as empathy or charisma, will be overlooked. And not all tasks capable of being carried out by AI should be: Vanderbilt University in Tennessee had to apologise for using ChatGPT to write a condolence email to students after a shooting at another American university.

 但是，诸如此类的研究可能夸大了自动化的潜力。负责映射LLM与人类能力之间重叠部分的标注者可能会忽略他们了解较少的职业中一些隐性技能。对于一些工作来说，人类的特质是至关重要的，比如同情心或魅力，这些将被忽视。并非所有可以由AI执行的任务都应该由AI执行：田纳西州的范德比尔特大学在另一所美国大学发生枪击事件后，不得不因使用ChatGPT写信给学生的慰问邮件而道歉。

Many businesses may also lack the IT architecture or inclination to accommodate AI innovations. And those who embrace it will face practical and legal quandaries. When chatbots do not know what to say, they often fib (though so can humans). The “creative” output they generate is based on a mashup of data sourced from the internet, raising thorny issues around accuracy, privacy and intellectual property. For all their conversational panache, in the real world, AI tools will still need handlers. That may even end up creating new jobs.

 许多企业可能也缺乏IT架构或倾向来适应人工智能创新。而那些接受人工智能的企业将面临实际和法律上的困境。当聊天机器人不知该说什么时，它们往往会撒谎（尽管人类也可能如此）。它们生成的“创意”输出基于从互联网获取的数据混合，引发了关于准确性、隐私和知识产权等棘手问题。尽管它们在对话技巧方面十分出色，在现实世界中，人工智能工具仍然需要受控者。这甚至可能会创造新的工作岗位。